Chris Ferguson - Do The Math - an interview

19.06.2008, Lesen Sie hier den Bericht über «Chris Ferguson - Do The Math - an interview».

An interview with the great All In Magazin

With three finals in four years, and now a first-place finish, Chris Ferguson is the undisputed king of the Heads-Up Championship. IT’S NOT EASY TO GLAMORIZE MATHEMATICS. To an extent, Good Will Hunting pulled it off, though the title character in that film didn’t exactly embrace his gift for math. The television show Numb3rs gave it a shot and has survived for three years, but the premise of foiling baddies with trig and calculus hasn’t quite translated into a Nielsen ratings bonanza.



In his own way, Chris Ferguson has perhaps done as much as anyone in modern pop culture to glamorize math. His look, though somewhat comical, is also undeniably cool—the long rock star hair, the dark shades, the incongruous combination of the cowboy hat and the business suit. He’s won nearly $6.7-million in poker tournaments and has collected five World Series bracelets (including one world championship) and three WSOP Circuit championship rings. And he’s absolutely dominated the National Heads-Up Poker Championship, reaching the finals in three of the tournament’s four years of existence. With the NHUPC televised by NBC, that makes it one of the two highest visibility tournaments on the poker schedule, along with the WSOP Main Event, and that’s furthered the impression that the man known as “Jesus” is an absolute superstar by poker standards.

And he’s won all this money and achieved all this fame as an unabashed math geek.

As Ferguson sat at the final table of the 2008 NHUPC, staring across the felt at another number cruncher, blackjack-pro-turned-poker-pro Andy Bloch, he couldn’t help but flash back to the mid-’90s, long before he was on NBC or ESPN, long before the world knew he could cut vegetables with a flick of his wrist, long before Full Tilt was anything other than the way people walked in V8 juice commercials.

In 1994, Ferguson was a grad student at UCLA who was just becoming serious about his poker playing. He devised a mathematical analysis that was specifically geared toward heads-up play, and had two computers running—one at home, one at the office—for about nine months, compiling statistics.

“From this analysis, I could actually tell you definitively how you should play certain short-stack situations, and I could prove that my answers were accurate,” he recalled. “Here I am, I’m a nobody in the poker world, and I noticed that some of these expert players, some very well-known players, would make huge mistakes that I could prove were mistakes. And I showed the research to some of my poker-playing friends, who were well-known players actually, and they scoffed at it a little bit. They disagreed with it, and they just wanted to play the way they wanted to play. And that’s when I realized that I knew something that these guys didn’t, which meant that I could play certain situations better than any of these guys could. And that told me that with a lot of hard work, I’d be able to beat these guys.” On December 8, 1995, about a year after he finished putting his computers through the wringer, Ferguson met Bloch for the first time when Bloch finished first and Ferguson fourth in the $1,500 Chinese Poker event at the Hall of Fame Poker Classic at Binion’s. After the tournament, Ferguson and Bloch went to a coffee shop together and got to talking about poker and math, when Jesus pulled out a sheet of paper that summarized the research he’d done.

“And lo and behold, Andy Bloch pulls out the same sheet from his pocket,” Ferguson remembered.

Ferguson had spent the better part of a year working on this analysis, only to find out that someone else had done the exact same thing and gotten essentially the same result. At the time, Ferguson was shocked and mildly deflated. Thirteen years later, his perspective has changed.

“I don’t think it was any coincidence that it was Andy Bloch and I in the finals at the Heads-Up Championship,” he said.

In 2005, a relatively conservative-playing veteran with great reading skills, Phil Hellmuth, won the NHUPC. In ’06, it was a wildly unpredictable veteran with great reading skills, Ted Forrest. In ’07, the NHUPC belonged to the new generation, with Internet-trained star Paul Wasicka prevailing. But in ’08, it was all about the math geeks. Score one for the number-loving nerds.

And score $500,000 for Ferguson, who, after settling for runner-up status in both ’05 and ’06, defeated Bloch in the best-two-out-of-three finals to win it all this year.

A couple of days before the old friends and math masters could get together, however, Ferguson’s tournament began in precarious fashion: down almost 5-to-1 in chips against John Juanda some 45 minutes into their first-round match, one card from elimination.

“He had me 7-to-1 at one point, but I’d battled back a little bit, I had $7,000 and he had $33,000,” Ferguson recalled. Short-stacked enough to commit his chips without premium cards, Ferguson found himself all in with K-9 against the pocket tens of Juanda. The flop and turn brought no help for Jesus.

“I remember thinking, as the hand’s coming down, Oh well, I’m probably out of this. And do I really want to win this hand? Because even if I win it, look how far down I am, it would be embarrassing to put a bad beat on him because he’s probably going to beat me in a couple of hands anyway. Oh well, this hand really isn’t of tantamount importance here.”

Never before has a hand so important been labeled “not of tantamount importance.” Ferguson spiked the miracle king on the river, and about an hour later, he got all the money in with K-10 against Juanda’s 9-5 suited and the better hand held up, allowing Ferguson to advance to Round Two in what would turn out to be the longest match of the entire ’08 NHUPC.

It wasn’t the only noteworthy match of the first round, however. The day began with last year’s finalists, Chad Brown and Wasicka, becoming the first two players eliminated, Allen Cunningham taking down “Downtown” in just 11 minutes and Freddy Deeb making quick work of “Kwickfish” in a mere 17 minutes. And one-time NHUPC champ Hellmuth didn’t fare any better. Up against online sensation Tom “durrr” Dwan at the featured table in the “clubs” bracket, Hellmuth got his opponent to push pre-flop with pocket tens against his rockets, only to be shown the rail by a two-outer on the turn.

Perhaps most amazing of all were two consecutive hands between Jamie Gold and qualifier Tom Kelly. Gold announced a pre-flop raise but didn’t say the amount, and before he could, Kelly announced all in. Gold, naturally, opted to make his raise be for the minimum, showed Kelly his pocket queens, and made an extraordinarily disciplined laydown. On the very next hand, Gold moved all in and showed his opponent one ace. Kelly, holding A-K, called instantly … and Gold turned over another ace. The bullets held up and Gold took a 9-to-1 chip lead that soon translated into a victory.

The second round was relatively uneventful for Ferguson; he needed no miracle river cards to beat Gavin Smith, his pocket fours holding up on the final hand against his opponent’s K-8. The same “uneventful” description could not be used for the man Ferguson would meet in Round Three, Mike “The Mouth” Matusow. For his second-round match against Dwan (if only Hellmuth’s aces hadn’t gotten cracked, we would have seen Hellmuth vs. Matusow), The Mouth showed up wearing a humorous T-shirt reading “Just Jew It,” a spoof on the famous Nike slogan. After much hubbub, tournament officials forced Matusow (who is Jewish, by the way, and therefore was born into the right to make Judaism-based jokes) to change the shirt.

Luckily for Ferguson, when they met in the third round, tournament officials couldn’t force Matusow to call on the river with the best hand. Here’s how this pivotal hand went: Ferguson limped in with A-J (a suspicious move, since Ferguson almost always raises on the button pre-flop), and the flop came A-Q-4. Matusow had a four in his hand and checked, Ferguson bet about two-thirds of the pot, and Matusow called. The turn brought a second queen, and Matusow bet. Ferguson didn’t put him on a queen (“If he had the queen, I thought he might go for a check-raise,” Ferguson explained), so he figured Matusow for an ace or a four, and Jesus ruled out A-K because he felt The Mouth would have raised pre-flop with Big Slick. So Ferguson called the turn bet, confident he held the best hand.

The river, however, brought a four, making Matusow a full house, a hand that could only lose to a queen, pocket aces, or A-4. Matusow checked it, and Ferguson set out what he felt was a value bet, hoping Matusow would call him with aces and queens with a worse kicker. Ferguson didn’t realize he was betting into a full house. But Matusow had to respect that Ferguson played the hand exactly how someone might if he held a queen. After going into the tank, Matusow folded. “Sometimes you’re bluffing, whether you know it or not,” Ferguson said afterward. “That was the key hand of the match, no question.” A little while later, Ferguson made a king- high flush to advance to the quarterfinals.

While Ferguson’s arrival in the elite eight for the third time in four years was a major story, it wasn’t the most buzz-worthy development of the tournament. Nor was Phil Ivey advancing to the quarters immediately after winning the L.A. Poker Classic. No, the talk of the tournament was Orel Hershiser, the Cy Young-winning former Dodgers pitcher who had relocated to Vegas and become a respected card player. At the NHUPC, Hershiser became this year’s Shannon Elizabeth, shocking Ted Forrest, Cunningham, and Deeb in succession to earn a date with Bloch in the quarterfinals. After each match, Hershiser asked his vanquished opponents to sign his baseball (also his card protector). But against Bloch, who wore a San Francisco Giants jersey in a playful display of psychological warfare, Hershiser didn’t acquire the signature he needed. Bloch won a nail-biter, earning the ball and a trip to the semis for the second year in a row, where he would meet fellow heads-up standout Huck Seed.

On the other side of the bracket, Ivey eliminated Gus Hansen, while Ferguson was put to the test by rising star Jonathan Little. As in his match with Juanda, Ferguson found himself down 7-to-1 in chips. Fortunately for Jesus, it was early in the match and he still had room to maneuver, so the even-keeled veteran stuck to his game.

“I’m not like, Oh, I’m down 7-to-1 in chips, what do I do?,” Ferguson said. “I know what to do: I’ve got to play poker. I’ve got to play the next hand as well as I possibly can.”

Ferguson didn’t have to do anything wild; he just needed to try to get all the chips in with the best hand and not get unlucky. He succeeded on his first try, doubling up with A-3 against 9-8. Then he did it again with pocket nines against pocket fours, taking a slight chip lead. Soon thereafter, the nines delivered for him again, holding up against Little’s suited 10-7 to propel Ferguson into a semifinal superstar showdown with Ivey.

For marquee final-four matches, it doesn’t get much bigger than Ferguson vs. Ivey. But this battle didn’t quite live up to the hype, as it was over unexpectedly quickly. We’re not talking Tyson vs. Spinks here, but during the second level of blinds, Ivey raised pre-flop with pocket sixes, Ferguson re-raised with eights, Ivey called, and a substantial pot was brewing. The 9-4-3 flop wasn’t overly frightening to either player, so Ferguson bet about half the pot, and Ivey called. When a five came on the turn, Ferguson made a bigger bet, about three-quarters of the pot, and Ivey went all in. Unfortunately for Ivey, however, he didn’t have enough in his stack for force Ferguson out. Getting about 4-to-1 on his money, Ferguson made the difficult call, dodged the deuce, six, or seven that Ivey needed, and scored the victory.

“It was a very tough decision,” Ferguson said of the turn call. “The thing is, with a pair of eights in that situation, if he’s got me, I’m drawing to two outs. If I don’t have the best hand, then I’m a 19-to-1 ’dog. That’s the big problem. The one problem for Phil is, he couldn’t raise me enough. He didn’t have enough money in his stack to get me to fold. I considered what hands he might have had. He could have easily hit a set. He could have slow-played an overpair like aces or kings. He could have hit a nine with A- 9, or maybe even 10-9 or J-9. Those are all very real possibilities. And the other possibilities I was thinking about were A-K or A-Q, where he’s actually the one with the draw. Or else these pairs, like sixes, sevens, or deuces, where he has a pair and a straight draw.

“Ultimately, because the pot was so big, it’s not nearly as big a mistake to call when I’m behind as it is to fold when I’m ahead. So I thought I had to call there. For me, if I have the best hand, folding is too big a mistake.”

That’s something Ferguson probably could have told you back in 1994, when his innovative brain and his overworked computers combined to tell him how to approach numerous heads- up situations. Now here he was 14 years later, some 12 years and three months after meeting Andy Bloch, sitting across the table from his fellow math wiz with championship glory on the line.

With Hershiser, Hellmuth, and Joe Hachem among the famous railbirds, Ferguson took an early lead in the opening match of the best-of-three series. But a couple of coolers put Jesus in a 1-0 hole. First, he made a set of eights that ran into Bloch’s flush, doubling up the MIT grad. Then, on a rainbow A-9-9 flop, Ferguson couldn’t get away from A-K when Bloch had 10-9, and Game One went to Bloch.

In Game Two, Ferguson found himself in a similar spot to where he was against Ivey: deeply committed to a pot, trying to decide whether to make the all-in call. On a flop of Q-J-4 with two hearts, Bloch bet out, Ferguson made a sizeable raise, and Bloch came over the top all in. Ferguson held 10-9 for, as he called it, “a crappy open-ended straight draw.”

“There was a lot of money in the pot,” Ferguson recalled. “It was another one of those situations where, Oh man, I’d really like to be able to call this. I figured I had eight outs if he had an overpair. Eight outs wasn’t enough, so I tried to get imaginative. What else could he have? He could have a flush draw, which would be awesome for me. But if he has a flush draw, he probably has a card higher than a ten in his hand. So now I need to hit the king, eight, nine, or ten, but any heart kills me, so I only have 10 outs. Ten outs instead of eight still isn’t enough. The math just didn’t add up. I was certain I was behind in the hand, and I wasn’t getting the right odds.” So Ferguson correctly made the laydown (Bloch had top pair) and lived to play another hand.

He doubled up with Q-J of diamonds against pocket threes, flopping a queen. Then he crippled Bloch, calling all in with pocket jacks on a 10-5-4 board, up against Andy’s 7- 6. The overpair held up, and just a couple of hands later, Ferguson enjoyed an excess of good fortune, getting it all in with Q-Q against K-3, flopping a set, and turning quads. The match was knotted at one game apiece.

The third match was the quickest of the three, taking only 28 minutes to crown a champion. On the final hand, Ferguson raised pre-flop with pocket jacks and Bloch called. The flop fell 10c-7s-3s, Bloch checked, Ferguson bet, Bloch check-raised, and Ferguson called. The 7h came on the turn. Bloch led out, and Ferguson raised him all in.

Several months earlier, during a Poker After Dark match, Ferguson borrowed a coin from Johnny Chan and flipped it to make a grueling all-in decision for him. After spending about seven minutes in the tank, Bloch stole Jesus’ coin trick, landed on “heads,” and made the call, turning over 10s-4s. Bloch had 10 outs, but the river was the 7c, making Ferguson the better full house.

Twice, Ferguson finished second in the NHUPC. This year, the close-but-no-cigar demons were put to rest.

Not that Ferguson ever saw it that way, though.

“For me to make the finals three out of four years, that was phenomenal for me. I didn’t feel any extra pressure,” Ferguson said when asked if he faced any additional burden because he’d been runner-up twice. “I guess it crossed my mind that if I finished second again I’d have to put up with people calling me ‘Mr. Second Place’ or something like that. I would have had to put up with answering those questions, but believe me, I would have been ecstatic to finish second and have to put up with those questions. It sure beats no one asking you any questions.

“And here’s another thing: If you finish second in major non-heads-up tournaments three times in a row, people are going to try and be helpful and say, ‘You ought to work on your heads-up game; if you improved your heads-up game, you’d be able to finish these things off.’ This is the Heads-Up Championship, so I knew I wouldn’t have to put up with those comments. ‘You finished second in the Heads-Up Championship three times, don’t you think you should work on your heads-up game?’”

No, Chris, you won’t have to put up with anyone telling you your heads-up game needs work. Not this year. Not ever again, in fact.

The Longest Matches 1. Chris Ferguson def. John Juanda, First round, 1 hour, 48 minutes Nobody ever said the road to the championship would be easy 2. Andy Bloch def. Shannon Elizabeth, First round, 1 hour, 46 minutes Shannon wasn’t this year’s Cinderella, but she fought hard 3. Freddy Deeb def. Sam Grizzle, Second round, 1 hour, 45 minutes Short in stature doesn’t equal short in heads-up action 4. T.J. Cloutier def. Daniel Schreiber, First round, 1 hour, 40 minutes The WSOP heads-up champ couldn’t quite extend his unbeaten streak 5. Orel Hershiser def. Allen Cunningham, Second round, 1 hour, 39 minutes This one went so long, Lasorda nearly had to go to the bullpen

The Shortest Matches 1. Allen Cunningham def. Chad Brown, First round, 11 minutes Last year’s last man eliminated becomes this year’s first 2. Tom Dwan def. Phil Hellmuth, First round, 13 minutes If there weren’t luck involved … well, you know the rest 3. Freddy Deeb def. Paul Wasicka, First round, 17 minutes All in with pocket tens on a board showing a jack? Really, Paul? 4. Doyle Brunson def. Sam Farha, First round, 25 minutes Dolly goes hyper-aggressive with four all-in moves in about 15 hands 5. Chris Ferguson def. Phil Ivey, Semifinals, 26 minutes Medium pairs collide and Ferguson makes the call of the tournament

The Biggest Upsets 1. Orel Hershiser def. Ted Forrest, First round The ’06 NHUPC champ goes down to the ’88 NL Cy Young winner 2. Orel Hershiser def. Allen Cunningham, Second round Ring up another “K” over another five-time bracelet winner 3. Orel Hershiser def. Freddy Deeb, Third round Hershiser strikes out the side 4. Gabe Kaplan def. Patrik Antonius, First round Costanza lost in round one, but Kotter won one for the sitcom stars 5. Tom Dwan def. Phil Hellmuth, First round Tens get lucky against aces, an upset within an upset

The Matches With Plotlines 1. Chris Ferguson vs. Phil Ivey, Semifinals When it comes to star power in the final four, how can you beat this pairing? 2. Jerry Yang vs. Chris Moneymaker, First round It seems every year we get a matchup of modern-era world champs 3. Sam Grizzle vs. Jean-Robert Bellande, First round Perhaps the best battle of trash-talkers that could be made 4. Chris Ferguson vs. Mike Matusow, Third round Full Tilt vs. Full Tilt, and the ultimate contrast in styles 5. Phil Ivey vs. Alisha Kunze, First round Like Creed vs. Balboa, the world’s best vs. a total unknown

The Big Game Bracket The positions in the NHUPC bracket are drawn at random every year, but sometimes randomly generated draws still come out looking like they have a pattern. This year, the most bizarre outcome of the pairings party was found in the bottom half of the “diamond” division—the final eighth of the bracket to be drawn.

There was Barry Greenstein vs. Howard Lederer; David Benyamine vs. Jennifer Harman; Sammy Farha vs. Doyle Brunson; and Erick Lindgren vs. Eli Elezra. What makes this grouping so unique? Well, it was practically a mini tournament of the regulars at the “Big Game” at Bellagio.

Lederer, of course, is only a former Big Game regular; nowadays, he hardly ever plays live cash games. And Lindgren doesn’t quite fit the description of Big Game regular. But the rest have nearly permanent seats in Bobby’s Room.

As it turned out, Benyamine topped Brunson in the finals of the Big Game Bracket (to advance to the Elite Eight of the whole tournament). And somewhere many miles above, Chip Reese was looking down, itching to get in on the action.

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