Poker-Strategy: Can a No-Limit Hold'em Game Be Too Loose?

02.10.2008, Lesen Sie hier den Bericht über «Poker-Strategy: Can a No-Limit Hold'em Game Be Too Loose?».

BY: ED MILLER Cardplayer.com

No! That is the mother of all poker questions. I've probably seen a variant of this question asked almost a thousand times. Can a game be too good, or too loose, or too soft? Do you actually want some good players in your game? Can a bunch of schooling fish turn even the best player into a sucker?

Before I go any further, I want to give the short answer: No. Basically, there's no such thing as a game that's too loose. I say basically because one could construct a game with enormous antes and tiny stacks and high rakes, in which your only hope of winning would be opponents who play ridiculously tight. But in any normal, typical poker game, no, the game can't be too loose.

Recently, a reader of my website, John, asked about the $1-$2 blinds game at his local cardroom. Here's what he had to say about his game:

The players there are very loose and pretty terrible, and they call everything preflop.

For example, I'll be under the gun with A-K, raise to $20 preflop, and consistently get four callers!

That means the pot is already at $100 when the flop comes, and I usually start the hand with only $300.

A-K is a good hand and is meant to flop top pair, top kicker (one out of three times), but as we all know, flopping one pair is only a "good" hand and not a "great" hand. So, when I do flop top pair, it puts me in a sticky situation. The pot is already too big!

I have gotten to the point where I think I may do one of the following two things:

1. Don't play as deep, so when I do hit my flop, I don't have to worry about reverse implied odds. (Loose-play collusion is a killer there, with people hitting two pair with junk.)

2. Simply limp in with hands like A-K, K-Q, A-Q, and so forth, in an effort to keep the pot small if I do hit it.

While John has identified an interesting issue, I think he's overestimating the frequency of bad outcomes and underestimating the frequency of good ones.

First off, if you raise to $20 with A-K and a $300 stack and four people call (and it isn't a fluke), you're in a fantastic situation. It's such a good situation that you probably could push all in every time it's checked to you on the flop and still turn a profit. If you do something smarter than that (and it's not hard to get smarter than that), you'll be solidly in the black.

Before I continue, I want to disagree with something John said: "Loose-play collusion is a killer there, with people hitting two pair with junk." That's an example of overestimating the frequency of bad outcomes. It's not the mathematical reality. Even four opponents are a significant underdog to flop two pair among them. For instance, an unsuited connector such as 8-7 has a 4.8 percent chance to flop two pair or better. A pocket pair obviously has a better chance to flop a set, but on average, I'd guess one of your four opponents will flop two pair or better no more than 25 percent of the time.

Furthermore, you can look at the flop and gauge the danger factor. If the flop is K 10 9, then sure, worry about your top pair. But if it's K 8 5, you are a solid favorite to be ahead of four opponents with junk hands.

So, what would a smarter (than pushing every time) strategy look like? Well, I'd tend to bet $30 to $100 on the flop, depending on the flop texture and any tells or reads I'd picked up. I might check some of the bad flops with which I thought I was a significant favorite to get action. Once the betting gets that big, live opponents tend to play fairly true to their hand strength. They'll fold most of their marginal hands. They'll call with good draws and top pair, they'll call or raise with two pair or better, and they'll maybe throw in a semibluff raise with a strong draw. They also might raise with top pair and a good kicker. Specifically, they aren't likely to call with a marginal hand to "play position" on you. And they aren't likely to raise you on a stone-cold bluff, either.

So, I don't think commitment decisions should be that difficult. Against some tight players, you'll have an easy fold if they play back at you after the big flop bet. And against others, you'll have an easy call or push with top pair. Only a few tricky players in the middle should give you trouble, and even when you do run into a sticky situation, you should be more than compensated by all of the $100 pots you pick up with a flop continuation-bet. You have a big equity edge on that preflop bet, and that will go a long way to cushioning you in uncertain post-flop times.

I've played in a lot of games recently like the one John describes, in which four people will call a preflop raise of 10 times the big blind. Generally, I find that I win in not one, but two major ways:

1. I win big pots with my big hands - flopped sets, and also overpairs and big top pairs made with hands like A-K.

2. I win oversized pots with flop bluffs and semibluffs. Many times, people will be loose for that $20 preflop, but then tighten up post-flop once the betting gets even bigger. That tendency offers some really juicy bluffing opportunities in which your opponents will build a big pot and then abandon it. (If your opponents are loose all the way through the hand, you'll miss out on these bluffs, but you'll get even more opportunities to win big pots, and with some weaker hands like K-Q top pairs.) Extremely loose games are very profitable - but they also can be roller-coaster rides. When I play in these games and the cards aren't running my way, I can lose three or four full buy-ins in an hour. You have to be psychologically prepared to get stacked, rebuy, and get stacked again on the next hand. It happens, and when the preflop pot is routinely half of your stack, it happens a lot.

If the swings make you uncomfortable, there's no shame in buying in shorter. You're guaranteed to be better off playing a shorter stack with confidence than playing a deeper stack in fear. But whatever stack size you play, rest assured that your no-limit game is definitely not too loose.

Über Swiss Poker:

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