Poker-STrategy: Winners Focus on the Here and Now

05.10.2008, Lesen Sie hier den Bericht über «Poker-STrategy: Winners Focus on the Here and Now».

BY: ALAN SCHOONMAKER on Cardplayer.com

The past and future are irrelevant

Let's say that you're playing no-limit hold'em. 1. The pot is $100. 2. You will win if you catch the right card and lose if you don't. 3. You know the exact odds against catching it. 4. There will be no more betting because the bettor is all in. 5. You are even for the night and have $200 in chips.

Case A: The odds against catching your card are 10-1. You have invested $30 in the pot, and it will cost you another $15 to call the last bet.

Case B: The odds against catching your card are 4-1. You have invested $20 in the pot, and it will cost you another $20 to call the last bet.

In which case would you be more likely to call?

Would you make a different decision if you were winning $500?

If you were losing $500?

What do your answers mean?

We can't draw firm conclusions from just two questions, but we can say what they suggest about your thinking. If you answered Case A, you were thinking like a loser. If you answered Case B, you were thinking like a winner. You should see whether this pattern occurs in other places.

Case A has a negative expectation. The odds against winning are 10-1, but you are getting only 6.67-1 ($100÷$15 = 6.67). If you do it 110 times, you will:

Win $100 10 times = +$1,000

Lose $15 100 times = -$1,500

Net loss for 110 times = $500

Average loss per bet = $4.54 (about 30 percent of the $15 bet)

Case B has a positive expectation. The odds against winning are 4-1, but you are getting 5-1 ($100÷$20 = 5). If you do it 100 times, you will:

Win $100 20 times = +$2,000

Lose $20 80 times = -$1,600

Net gain for 100 times = $400

Average gain per bet = $4 (20 percent of the $20 bet)

Ignore Irrelevant Factors

But what about the difference in your investment? Isn't risking another $15 to protect a $30 investment better than risking $20 to protect a $20 investment? The answer could not be simpler: No, no, no!

Once you put a dollar in the pot, it isn't yours anymore. It's exactly the same as every other dollar in there. Winners don't think of "protecting their investments." Instead, they base their decisions on the expectation now.

What about the way you're running? Should you decide differently if you are winning or losing? Again, the answer is, "No!" Your past results are irrelevant, and winners ignore their past results and other irrelevancies, such as how lucky they feel. If the expectation now is positive, they bet. If the expectation now is negative, they pass. If they do it enough times, they must win.

Many losers are unable to think that way. For example, they say to themselves, "I've gone this far, so I've got to call," or, "I haven't made a flush all night, and I'm due," or, "I'm so hot that I know my card is coming." All of these statements are dumb. An even dumber statement is, "I've got to get even." If you think that way, you probably will play badly. Instead of rationally assessing your current expectation, you will focus on your feelings. Desperate attempts to get even have wiped out countless bankrolls.

We all have regretted not quitting a game sooner, but some rules for deciding when to quit are just silly: "Quit when you are ahead." "Quit when you have doubled your investment."

On the other hand, quitting when you have lost a certain amount is quite reasonable. If you lose too much, you may think, "I've got to get even."

Additionally, winning may suggest that you have an edge in this game, and losing may suggest the opposite. Winning and losing also may affect your table image and your opponents' reactions. Consider all these factors, and then base your play-or-quit decision entirely on your expectation now.

Don't Play "Woulda, Coulda, Shoula" Games

Some losers watch the action not to learn from it, but to second-guess their past decisions. Then, instead of focusing on how to play this hand, they mentally replay past hands. "I should have cold-called that raise with my 7h 5h; I would have made a flush. I would have won $142, and I'd be ahead $25 instead of down $117."

When winners fold a hand, they mentally erase it -- unless they can learn from it. They can't have those cards back, so they forget them and focus on what they should do now: play their best and gather information to make future adjustments.

Don't Dream About the Future

Winners plan for the future. They think about how they should play this and future hands. Losers dream about the future: "If I win this pot, I will be down only $130. Then I will need just one more to be even for the night."

While losers brood about the past and dream of the future, winners study the other players and decide how to adjust their strategy. It's the smartest thing they can do at the most important time -- now.

Winners Laws 1. Stay focused on what you should do now to maximize your long-term profits. Don't worry about the past or dream about the future. Concentrate on what you should do now. 2. Accept that lost money, time, and effort are gone forever. They are like the money in the pot. It doesn't matter who put it in; what matters is who takes it out. Invest your money and time only when you can profit from it. 3. Pay attention to what you are thinking. Constantly ask yourself: Am I focused on my current expectation, or am I thinking about something else? How Do You Rate?

This rating scale measures how much you focus on the here and now, the decision at hand, versus the past, future, and other irrelevant factors.

Circle the number that best describes your agreement with this statement: While playing poker, I focus completely on what I must do NOW to get the best long-term results. (7) Agree strongly, (6) Agree, (5) Agree somewhat, (4) Neutral, (3) Disagree somewhat, (2) Disagree, (1) Disagree strongly.

The Critical Question

Review this column, especially the "Winners Laws" and "How Do You Rate?" Then, answer two questions: • What are the implications of my self-rating? • What should I do differently? List specific actions that you should take to improve your focus on the here and now. Discuss your answers with someone you trust, and take good notes.

To learn more about yourself and other players, you can buy Dr. Schoonmaker's books

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