Poker Strategy: The Lesser of Three Evils

05.02.2009, Lesen Sie hier den Bericht über «Poker Strategy: The Lesser of Three Evils».

BY: JUSTIN ROLLO Sometimes in tournaments, you face a situation in which you are given three bad alternatives from which to choose. Even for seasoned professionals, these situations, while not common, still arise from time to time, and we all must deal with them.

Game Deep in a PokerStars $150 + $12 no-limit hold'em tournament Blinds 3,000-6,000 Opponent Unknown, in middle position Stacks 449,754 (me) vs. 217,926 My Cards Jh Js My Position Under the gun

I raise 14,225 from under the gun. I am new to the table and am obviously happy about receiving pocket jacks. However, as the hand progresses, I will see that the situation I am put in following my raise leaves me three options, none of which are very attractive.

Following my raise, the short-stacked player right behind me folds, and a middle- position player three-bets to 54,000, leaving himself with 163,926 behind. It is then quickly folded back to me, and I am left with three options: raising, calling, or folding. Let's break down each option.

Raising: The obvious benefit of four-betting here is that while it might not be as much as we would like, we still have fold equity. The villain in this hand is an unknown, which usually makes his range tighter than if he were an aggressive regular, thus decreasing my fold equity.

The other factor I must consider is that in general (aside from aggressive regulars in aggressive fields), most players will not three-bet an early-position raise, especially when they are in early position, as well. The third factor I have to consider is that I am deep in a fairly large tournament, which, like the previous two facts, only helps to shrink the villain's range. Does all of this mean that I am definitely behind his range? Well, no.

Does all of this mean that he wouldn't fold A-Q to a four-bet all in? Once again, the answer is no. However, if I am ahead, it is by a very small margin, and my fold equity is small enough that it will not bridge the gap enough to make this a sufficiently profitable raise, especially deep in a tournament, where equity can change so much in a single pot. For instance, an 80-big-blind pot deep in a tournament can literally be worth thousands of dollars in equity, whereas that same 80-big-blind pot early in a tournament will barely affect your long-term equity.

Calling: The second option is to call the three-bet and attempt to play post-flop. In a perfect world, this would be a good option. However, with his stack size of approximately 40 big blinds, it becomes almost impossible to play profitably against his range. His range is extremely polarized to either two very big cards or a big pair. Thus, any flop that does not include a jack becomes extremely hard to play. If it comes all low cards and I lead out, it sets his stack up for a perfect shove, whether he has overcards or an overpair. If I check on a low flop and he bets, I have to either shove into possibly a big pair or face a shove by him. Flat-calling in this spot, while giving out more information about my hand, very rarely ever puts me in a position to learn much more about his range. Unless he were to play it very passively, I am almost always going to be faced with a bad situation to put more chips into the pot.

Folding: The last option is likely the one that most players would immediately rule out, folding. I am getting 2-1 immediate odds on a call, and as mentioned, I might have slight fold equity. However, there are many factors that point me in the direction of folding, even if it is not the sexiest option. I am new to the table; thus, I have no reads on the villain and, more importantly, he has no reads on me. I have not had the chance to establish a tight or loose image, and I have a very large stack, even by folding.

His stack is also extremely healthy coming in, so I have to think that he would not have been three-betting extremely light. The other factor that I must consider here is the effects on my equity if I win or lose. While I would most definitely gain equity by winning this pot, as there are only approximately 36 people left in the tournament, this gain is more than outweighed by the 35 percent-40 percent of the time that I call or raise and lose more chips. While folding is not exactly a great option, it has fewer negatives attached to it than either calling or raising.

As you progress in tournament poker, situations like this will become less and less frequent. However, every now and then, you encounter a situation that offers you three bad options and leaves you scratching your head, pondering your next move. The best advice I can give to aspiring tournament players is to make the play that least affects your equity in the short term. Let other situations in which your skill edge provides a greater opportunity to increase your equity determine your results.

To watch Justin Rollo comment on and play this hand, point your browser to Card Player Pro, the complete online poker training site, at www.CardPlayer.com/link/jurollo-7.

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