Poker Strategy: Bluffing in Limit Hold'em: Mission Impossible? Part III

13.02.2009, Lesen Sie hier den Bericht über «Poker Strategy: Bluffing in Limit Hold'em: Mission Impossible? Part III».

BY: BARRY TANENBAUM | pokerbear@cox.net

Part III - Bluffing on the flop Parts I and II of this series discussed some basic concepts about bluffing in limit hold'em. I will mention some of them again as we look at various bluffs; please bear them all in mind throughout the rest of these columns. You can find these columns at www.CardPlayer.com.

We'll now begin a street-by-street analysis of bluffing opportunities.

Before the flop: This is not worth much attention, so we will cover it quickly. Bluffing before the flop is also called "stealing the blinds." Many books and columns have looked at this part of the game. Briefly, to bluff preflop, you raise with an inferior hand and hope that everyone folds. To achieve success, the following should exist:

• You have a tight image. • You have not raised preflop for quite a while. • Both players in the blinds must defend their blinds infrequently, waiting for quality hands to do so. • Any players behind you must respect raises. (Many players simply like to play hands, and will call two bets cold with any hand they deem playable. These people are great for the game, but not if you are determined to steal the blinds.) • Ironically, it helps not to be on the button. So many players try to steal automatically when everyone has folded to them on the button that the play has almost no credibility, regardless of your image.

There are also preflop plays that are aimed at setting up later bluffs, such as three- betting a frequent loose raiser with a hand like 10-9 suited. While this can be a reasonable play, it is not a bluff, in that you do not expect to win the pot on this street.

On the flop: Bluffing on the flop requires a combination of the following:

• Credibility • The right number of opponents • The right type of opponents • The right texture of flop

The latter is the most important. You want to bluff at flops that have missed everyone.

Credibility: I stress credibility again because many successful bluffs on the flop are made from early position, preferably from the blinds, and generally in an unraised pot. You bet into the right type of flop and everyone folds. What could be easier?

To properly execute this bluff, however, you also must bet at these flops when you have the goods. Everyone does not always fold, of course, and sometimes if you show down a winning hand after betting three times, you convince opponents not to doubt you later, when you have nothing.

An unraised pot is also important. The problems with raised pots are that someone has represented a real hand, may actually have one, and is disinclined to fold on the flop, and the pot is generally large enough that opponents are tempted to take one off.

The right number of opponents: In general, the fewer there are, the better, though that is true of most bluffs. It is difficult to hit a flop, and with, say, two opponents, everyone often has nothing. The first one to bet wins, and if you are in early position, you can win this race.

The right type of opponents: Increasingly, you will find players who simply love to call flops. These folks will call a bet on a flop of As 6c 4d with the Qh Jh. Again, they are great for the game and are playing terribly, but you cannot make successful flop bluffs against them.

Let's say a middle-position player limps in, the button calls, and the small blind folds. You have the Qs 2c and check. The flop is 9s 6c 4d. It is very unlikely that anyone has any piece of this flop, and you are first to act. If you bet, you need to be successful only one time in three to show a nice profit (as there are 3.5 small bets in the pot). Note that your opponents are getting only 4.5-1 to call, so they are not getting a good price to call with overcards if they believe you have (at least) one pair.

The right texture of flop: You want to bet at flops that have probably missed everyone. But which flops are they?

First, rainbow flops are best, though two-suited flops are OK against one or two players. Not everyone can flop a flush draw. Single-suited flops are terrible for bluffing purposes, as anyone with a relatively high card in that suit will call you, and because some opponents with even a little something will suspect you of bluffing with one suited high card yourself and will call you down.

King-high flops with few or no draws are much better to bluff at than flops headed by an ace, queen, jack, or 10. Remember, we are assuming that no one has raised preflop. Many players like to limp with hands containing queens, jacks, and tens (Q-10, 10-8, J-8 suited, for example). Some people are also addicted to playing any hand with an ace in it, regardless of how bad a play that is. Not that many players limp with a naked king, however, though some do like to play suited ones. In addition, no one can have two overcards.

The cover of my book Advanced Limit Hold'em Strategy illustrates exactly this situation. In the big blind, you have the 5c 3c and four opponents. The flop is Kc 9h 4d. Bet! You are getting 5-1, your opponents are unlikely to have a king, and at 6-1 (counting your bet), they are getting the wrong price to try for a gutshot with a hand like Q-J or J- 10. This bet should succeed far more often than the 20 percent of the time you need to break even if the other factors are present.

Paired flops also work well, as they limit even more the chances that your opponents have made something. Flops like 8-8-4 are wonderful for betting, but remember that you should also be betting these flops when you do have an 8. If you insist on slow-playing when you do have an 8, you will get far fewer believers when you bet out.

Three small cards that are not all wheel cards also work for this purpose. Flops like 5- 3-2 do not work as well, because players with ace-high hands assume that they have extra outs. Flops like 7-4-2 are nice for bluffing from the blinds, as players in the blinds could easily have one pair or better, while many players who limped with, say, Q-10 would find it very difficult to call.

I want to add a word about semi-bluffing on the flop. Semibluffing is simply bluffing with a draw, hoping everyone folds but having outs if they don't. This is a good idea only if the flop is conducive to bluffing in the first place. If the flop is Qh Jh 7c, and you bet the Kc 10d into four opponents, you are not semibluffing, as the chance that everyone will fold is almost zero. You may be betting to set something up, and you may be betting for value with your draw, but you are not semibluffing.

Next issue, we will complete our examination of bluffing on the flop.

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold'em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold'em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies, both available at www.CardPlayer.com. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at pokerbear@cox.net.

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